Crash game simulator

This tool is not a demo of the game: nothing is staked, no account is needed and no tokens are involved. It uses Pothole's three routes, their multiplier tables and their odds, but the draws come from your browser's random generator (Math.random), not from the game's verifiable draw.

How to read the results

• Observed RTP: what the simulation returned per 100 tokens staked. Over 100 rounds it can be far from 97%. Over 100,000 it gets very close.
• Worst losing streak: how many rounds in a row were lost. That's what drains a balance, far more than the average.
• Worst drawdown: the biggest drop from a peak. It measures what you have to be able to absorb without panicking.
• Distribution: where the pothole fell, km by km. In red, lost rounds (before your cash-out); in gold, rounds won.

Why the target doesn't change the expectation

In Pothole, the multiplier at km k equals 0.97 divided by the chance of getting there. Multiply the two and you always get 0.97: 97 tokens back on average per 100 staked, whether you cash out at the first km or the last. Here's what that looks like on the City street route (80% chance to clear each km):

The actual multiplier is the one at the first km that reaches your target, hence the small gap. The full math: crash game probability.

What the target really changes: variance

A low target gives frequent, small wins; a high target gives rare, big wins with long dry spells. On the City street route with a 2× target, the chance of losing 5 rounds in a row is about 7%. With a 10× target, the chance of losing 20 in a row is about 17%. Neither is "better": they lose the same amount on average, just not in the same way.

Systems that double the stake after a loss don't change anything either: they trade many small wins for one rare, large loss. Our page on crash game strategies goes through them. To play for real without money, head here: free crash game.