Pothole's multipliers

The formula

Each route has a probability p of clearing a kilometre: 90% on Country road, 80% on City street, 62% on the Expressway. The multiplier after n kilometres is:

multiplier(n) = 0.97 ÷ pⁿ, rounded to the cent.

The 0.97 is the 97% RTP. Without it, the formula would be 1 ÷ pⁿ, the "fair" multiplier of an even bet; the 3% difference is the game's edge, the same at every kilometre and on every route.

Examples

• Country road, km 1: 0.97 ÷ 0.90 = 1.08×. Km 10: 2.78×. Km 24: 12.16×.
• City street, km 1: 1.21×. Km 5: 2.96×. Km 18: 53.85×.
• Expressway, km 1: 1.56×. Km 3: 4.07×. Km 12: 300.66×.

The full tables

What it implies

• Same expectation everywhere. Cashing out at km 1 on Country road or at km 12 on the Expressway returns, on average over thousands of rounds, 97% of the stake. The route doesn't make the game "pay more"; it makes it twitchier.
• Volatility is the route. On the Expressway, 38% of rounds end at the very first kilometre, but survivors see their multiplier more than double every km.
• The pothole is already placed. The server draws its position at the start, with exactly these probabilities, and gives you its fingerprint. Driving on "because it's been a while" makes no sense: every kilometre has the same chance of giving way as the last.