One formula, one table and a calculator: the real chance of reaching the multiplier you're aiming for.
In a crash game, one question matters: what's the chance the multiplier reaches the one you're aiming for? The answer fits in a short formula, and it explains almost everything else.
In a fair crash game, the chance of reaching a multiplier x is roughly the RTP divided by x. With a 97% RTP:
That's by design: the game is built so that chance × multiplier always equals the RTP. That's why no target is "better" than another (see RTP and house edge).
In Pothole, the multiplier climbs per km, so in steps. The chance of reaching km n is exactly 0.97 divided by that km's multiplier. For a given target, you need the first km that matches or beats it:
| Target | Country road | City street | Expressway |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.50× | km 5 (1.64×): 59.1% | km 2 (1.52×): 63.8% | km 1 (1.56×): 62.2% |
| 2.00× | km 7 (2.03×): 47.8% | km 4 (2.37×): 40.9% | km 2 (2.52×): 38.5% |
| 3.00× | km 11 (3.09×): 31.4% | km 6 (3.70×): 26.2% | km 3 (4.07×): 23.8% |
| 5.00× | km 16 (5.23×): 18.5% | km 8 (5.78×): 16.8% | km 4 (6.56×): 14.8% |
| 10.00× | km 23 (10.94×): 8.9% | km 11 (11.29×): 8.6% | km 5 (10.59×): 9.2% |
| 50.00× | — | km 18 (53.85×): 1.8% | km 9 (71.66×): 1.4% |
| 100.00× | — | — | km 10 (115.57×): 0.8% |
A dash means the route doesn't go that high: the Country road tops out at 12.16×. The full multiplier tables list every km.
Enter the multiplier you're aiming for. The calculator gives the km to reach on each route, the actual multiplier at that km and your chance of getting there, plus the same for a classic crash game at 97%.
In classic crash games, the multiplier starts at 1.00× and some rounds stop before it even climbs: the instant crash. If the formula holds all the way down, the chance of reaching 1.01× at a 97% RTP is 0.97 ÷ 1.01, about 96%: roughly one round in 25 stops before it. Cashing out at 1.01× wins very often, but wins little: the average return is still 97%.
Pothole has no 1.00×: the first step is a full km, and the pothole can already be there. That's its instant crash:
| Route | Multiplier at km 1 | Pothole at km 1 |
|---|---|---|
| Country road | 1.08× | 10.2% |
| City street | 1.21× | 19.8% |
| Expressway | 1.56× | 37.8% |
On the Expressway, more than one round in three stops at the first km. That's expected: it's the price of a multiplier that hits 4.07× by km 3.
These odds hold for every round, whatever happened before. Ten low crashes in a row don't make the next one higher: that's the gambler's fallacy. To see these probabilities at work over thousands of rounds, try the simulator.
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Roughly the RTP divided by 2: 48.5% at a 97% RTP. In Pothole, on the Country road, the first km at 2× or more (2.03×) is reached 47.8% of the time.
Because the chance of reaching even the smallest multiplier isn't 100%. It's part of the house edge, built into the game.
No. Each round has its own draw; the odds are identical every time.
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